| 28 December 2009
Wow, we’re already (nearly) halfway through the season! Let's look back at the last 20 games.
After the 1st 20 games, everyone outside of Colorado was waiting for the Avs to fall off a cliff. Although Colorado did cool down slightly over the next 20, amassing 23 of an available 40 points (vs 27 of 40 points over the first 20 games), the preverbal cliff was nowhere in sight - the Avs held onto in 1st place in the Northwest division and 3rd place in the Western Conference when it was all said and done.
ADB’s 3 Stars:
1. Wojtek Wolski – We've seen Wolski put together 1 or 2 game flashes before - his first few games centering a line with Hejduk and Smyth as his wingers last year immediately come to mind - but we've never seen him play at this high of a level, this consistently, for this long. Wolski averaged more than a point a game over the last 20 games (22 points) and led the team plus / minus (+6) over the same stretch. It looks like the light blub has come on and stayed on for Wooly. (finally!)
2. Chris Stewart – Speaking of the light blub coming on, over the last 20 games Chris Stewart has transformed his game from what I would characterize as a "healthy scratch worthy, dangerously flirting with being a first round bust" to “a top line power forward, who's strength, speed and skill are giving opposing defensemen real problems". Stewey’s play over the last 20 games demanded that he have a spot on the 1st line with Stastny and Wolski. 10 of his 11 goals have been scored over these 20 games and, like Wolski, he has been bringing it nearly every night.
3. Matt Duchene – After a bit of a rocky start in the first 20 games, Duchene started to make some really positive strides on both ends of the ice. Offensively, his 17 points was good for 4th best on the team and his 8 goals tied him with Hejduk for 2nd place. Defensively, he finished with a 0 plus / minus rating (he was a minus 7 after the first 20). The scary thing (for the rest of the NHL) is that I feel Matt still has quite a bit of adjusting to do the NHL game; I still don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near how good this kid can (and will eventually) be.
ABD’s 3 Goats:
1. David Koci – Unlike every other player with 10+ games played on the Avalanche roster, Koci hasn’t been a difference maker in any single game this season, with the exception of a home game against Washington where he took an awful and dangerous major boarding penalty against Mike Green in a 5-0 game. Koci hasn’t played since the Caps game and I hope it stays that way.
2. Cody McLeod – McLeod played in all 20 games, but only managed to come away with 3 points and was a team worst -5 over the stretch. You’d be fooling yourself if you were expecting Cody to show up on the score sheet every night, but you do expect Cody to bring the sandpaper every game. Too many games, he wasn’t.
3. Darcy Tucker – After compiling 6 points in his first 12 games (he only played in 12 of the first 20 games due to a concussion), Tucker skated to a measly 5 points over these 20 games and minus 4 rating. On the plus side, only 6 PIM for Darcy over this stretch, so at least he is staying out of the box.
Most surprising thing:
Chris Stewart’s play. I’ve already gone into detail on this in the 3 Stars, but its just not common to see a player go from borderline NHL / AHL player to impact top line power forward. I’ll feel like this is a bit of a cop out, so I’ll give you another one:
Peter Budaj’s play. Budaj was very solid when called upon and ended up with a better save % than Anderson (.938 vs .903) over this stretch. More importantly, he gave up no bad goals.
Most expected thing:
Paul Stastny’s play. Games 1 through 20, Stastny had 18 points games and games 21 through 40, Paul had 21 points. Also, not surprisingly, he leads the Avs in scoring.
Team Stats:
Record: 10-7-3
Standings: 1st in division, 3rd in the Western Conference
Points: 23 (of 40)
Average points per game: 1.15* (-0.20) - the italicized number is the difference from games 1-20.
*As a baseline – San Jose (last year’s President’s Cup winners) averaged 1.42 points a game and Anaheim (lowest point total who made the playoffs) averaged 1.11 points a game – anything above 1.20 is going to get you into the playoffs.
Home record: 5-3-2
Points: 12 (of 20)
Average points per game: 1.20 (-0.30)
Road record: 5-4-1
Points: 11 (of 20)
Average points per game: 1.10 (-0.15)
Goal differential: -2 (Avs: 59 - Opponents: 61) (-8)
*includes goals awarded for winning a shootout
Special Teams:
Power Play: 17.8%, tied for 17th in the NHL (+3 places)
Penalty Kill: 80.5%, tied for 15th in the NHL (-6 places)
*percentage includes games 1 – 20.
Shootout Record:
1-2 (2-3)
Individual Stats:
Points Leaders:
1. Wojtek Wolski - 22
2. Paul Stastny - 21
3. Chris Stewart - 19
Goal Leaders:
1. Chris Stewart - 10
2. Matt Duchene / Milan Hejduk - 8
Assists Leaders:
1. Paul Stastny / Wojtek Wolski – 16
3. Matt Duchene / Chris Stewart - 9
Plus / Minus:
Plus leader: Wojtek Wolski (+6)
Minus leader: Cody McLeod (- 5)
*Plus / Minus can be a really misleading stat when considered across the NHL as a whole, but I believe plus / minus has value when viewed in the context of the same team.
Goalies:
Anderson – 14 games, 7-6, .903
Budaj – 8 games, 3-4, .938
Final Thought: Ladies and gentlemen, this team is for real. Barring a rash of long term injuries to the most key players (Stastny, Wolski, Hejduk, Anderson, Quicney, Foote) this team should find its way into the playoffs. Only 19 of the team’s remaining 42 games are on the road. Colorado had a couple of bad regulation home losses in December (against Minnesota and Anaheim) – they will need to make sure to get points out of games like that during the 2nd half if they want to have a shot at winning the Northwest title.
Check back here during the Olympic break (mid Feb) for a look back at games 41 - 61.
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